Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 81041.509328 85546.916958 90049.496541 94883.643804 99923.570447 105019.825673 110559.226629
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 73130.732307 79994.630816 87045.736809 94820.338436 103141.783738 111771.097537 121385.707118
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 68411.318881 76954.659325 85921.657446 96013.872089 107034.610208 118682.383555 131901.775956
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 63747.541724 73444.511508 83810.155741 95680.209336 108861.098557 123012.802872 139319.062330
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 61131.101935 71889.392565 83570.409934 97144.204774 112430.371385 129059.102626 148461.312269
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 58581.202034 70190.432628 82975.187815 98029.104807 115196.824100 134091.539531 156383.529330
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 55859.911234 68116.198431 81793.779016 98098.170002 116909.629740 137836.744323 162778.262966
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 53308.544858 66092.111507 80537.246609 97955.635693 118271.011543 141096.475728 168555.579675
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 52129.480409 65590.903655 80971.241411 99706.243978 121765.603941 146766.099775 177086.749903
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 51045.581299 65130.777289 81392.815221 101391.344265 125148.352847 152290.790087 185457.763219
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 49555.307951 64107.762103 81083.009396 102154.325346 127403.413684 156477.388293 192264.250627
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 47693.874400 62556.029925 80071.107683 102014.573245 128534.398684 159307.627693 197457.174801
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 46177.269054 61398.474026 79518.967370 102428.084463 130347.244132 162988.043454 203733.793532
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 44539.384792 60034.015439 78666.949319 102437.326055 131646.324579 166048.106615 209284.663496
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 43642.445037 59560.138170 78877.874461 103723.591148 134481.808372 170948.890302 217060.198720
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 42010.296180 58094.064128 77803.597027 103372.166106 135273.494930 173358.953382 221822.697602
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 41378.144570 57881.196807 78275.668373 104930.372517 138411.526685 178621.781965 230067.696036
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 40501.815854 57317.296263 78275.202833 105871.784900 140770.462882 182932.911277 237168.533957
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 39283.184772 56264.303389 77614.922770 105945.279281 142019.886696 185868.022189 242582.706960
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 38028.799261 55123.449222 76804.861401 105793.684861 142958.844535 188402.652227 247498.747884
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 37704.595478 55206.559064 77567.468580 107655.480956 146449.320912 194120.233089 256390.002331
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 37370.161020 55259.628575 78279.685853 109447.232919 149855.223917 199748.805657 265204.157096
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 36648.233454 54762.834047 78249.843305 110258.385026 151998.302378 203797.076815 272060.095902